A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
